Dart Throwing Chimps versus Futurists

Reasons Its Hard to Make Predictions, Especially About the Futurereviews the not so positive book on forecasting Future Babble. The articles tagline: “Why dart-throwing chimps are better than the experts.”

This is a reference is to a classicstudy of expert forecastscoveredin the book. Conducted 50 years ago by UC Berkeley psychologist Philip Tetlock, the study concluded that most expert forecasts would have been beaten by “a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”

It seems to be open season on futurists and forecasts. Just a few weeks ago we posted on the book The Worlds Worst Predictions, which claims modern day forecastersare no more accurate than the goat entrail readingOracles of ancient times.

In our defense, the job is less messy today andno goats are injured during the process.

Despite the negative press – and the reality that no one can predict future – theres a clear trend towards a growing interest in trends and forecasts. The drivers are thegrowing complexity, increased uncertainty and rapid change of the modern world.

Were forecastingthese willincrease – more change, more uncertainty, more complexity. Because of this, were also forecasting an increase in forecasts and forecasters.

And yes, well keep getting it wrong. But the alternative – dart throwing chimps -would get you into all sorts of trouble with animal rights groups.