Shell Oil is famous in forecasting circles for their use of scenario planning in Shell’s strategic planning process. And as a former energy economist (I got better), I still look forward to their annual energy forecasts.
This year’s forecast looks out to 2050 and has several scenarios around energy production and consumption. The key charts – their baseline energy demand and production forecasts to 2030 are below. The key points, I think, are:
- Rising energy demand from non-OECD (developing) countries
- A slight decline in energy demand from the OECD countries
- The growing role of natural gas
- The growing role of coal
- How little renewables contribute – even in 2030
